Arizona Diamondbacks 2010 MLB Preview

The 2009 season was one of the most disappointing in Arizona Diamondbacks history.

After winning the National League West Division in 2007 and finishing two games out of first place in 2008, the D-backs entered the ’09 campaign harboring what they thought were legitimate playoff aspirations.

The high hopes unraveled with startling swiftness. Ace pitcher Brandon Webb was hit hard on Opening Day and missed the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury. The bullpen torched numerous late-inning leads, helping to foster a yearlong malaise that was cemented by the offense’s inability to produce in clutch situations.

A dreadful month of April, in which the Diamondbacks played 18 of 22 games at home but finished with a record of 9-13, was followed by a tumultuous May. Veteran manager Bob Melvin was fired on May 7 and was replaced in the dugout by farm director A.J. Hinch, a 34-year-old former backup catcher with no managerial experience.

The Arizona ballclub, which had a 12-17 record at the time of the managerial change, went 58-75 the rest of the way under Hinch and ended the year in the NL West basement at 70-92.

Expectations among the local fan base and predictions by the regional and national media are correspondingly low for the 13 th-year franchise heading into the 2010 season.

Will Hinch be able to rely upon anyone to hit consistently from the Nos. 1-2 and 5-9 positions in the lineup? If not, the result will be another offensively challenged season, as the run-producing load will again have to be carried almost exclusively by middle-of-the-order sluggers Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds.

Can the 30-year-old Webb, the 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner, come back from shoulder surgery and approach the form that allowed him to win 87 games for the Diamondbacks from 2003-08? If he can’t, the pitching staff looks woefully thin behind reliable workhorse Dan Haren.

Will promising newcomers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy be able to step into the rotation and provide stability and longevity? If they don’t, the D-backs will be hard-pressed to find viable alternatives.

Can the bullpen avoid a repeat of last season’s recurring pattern of excruciating meltdowns? If it can’t, the consequence will be another long, grueling summer in the desert.

2010 D-backs preview: Position players

Two things appear certain when assessing the potential of Arizona’s everyday lineup – right fielder Upton will continue his ascension to stardom and third baseman Reynolds will reinforce his status as a dependable power hitter.

Upton, still just 22 years old, hit .300 with 26 home runs and 86 RBIs last season. He should be able to maintain a .300-plus batting average throughout his career, and he can be legitimately counted upon to improve his power numbers to the point where he produces well over 30 homers and 100 RBIs every year.

Reynolds, 26, might not match his 2009 totals of 44 homers and 102 RBIs, but he should reach the benchmarks of 30 and 90. While Reynolds strikes out more than anybody (a major-league record 223 times last year), of greater importance is whether he can maintain his batting average at or above the .260 plateau he attained last season.

The overall success of the Diamondbacks’ offense will be largely contingent on a supporting cast that includes newly acquired infielders Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson as well as veteran holdovers Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, Miguel Montero and Chris Young.

LaRoche, a first baseman, played for Pittsburgh, Boston and Atlanta last season and hit .277 with 25 homers and 83 RBIs. Meanwhile, second baseman Johnson had the worst year of his career for Atlanta (.224, 8 homers, 29 RBIs).

The Diamondbacks are banking upon a bounce-back season for Johnson, and they also are hoping for a rebound from Young, a 26-year-old center fielder who hit a paltry .212 last year with 15 homers and 42 RBIs after driving in 85 runs (with 22 homers) in 2008 and finishing with 32 homers and 68 RBIs in 2007.

Another comeback candidate is left fielder Conor Jackson, who hit just .182 in 99 at-bats last year before missing the remainder of the campaign with Valley Fever.

Montero hit a surprising .294 with 15 homers and 59 RBIs last year, when he took over the first-string catching duties from incumbent Chris Snyder (.200, 6, 22). While Hinch said during spring training that he won’t bury Snyder on the bench, the 29-year-old former starter could be a candidate for a mid-season trade.

The Diamondbacks need Drew, a 27-year-old shortstop, to make things happen at the top of the lineup. After hitting .291 with 21 home runs and 67 RBIs in 2008, Drew slipped to .261 with 12 homers and 65 RBIs last season. The fifth-year veteran remains a candidate for a true breakout season.

2010 D-backs preview: Pitchers

In Haren’s first two seasons with the Diamondbacks, the now 29-year-old right-hander has pitched 445 and 1/3 innings, has struck out 429 batters and has won 30 games. He has posted earned-run averages of 3.33 in 2008 and 3.14 last year, a 2009 campaign in which he allowed just 192 hits and 38 walks in 229 and 1/3 innings for a league-leading WHIP (walks plus hits allowed per inning) of 1.00.

Haren’s 2009 record of 14-10 would have been significantly better had the offense scored more runs for him and had the bullpen not trashed several of his late-inning leads. If Haren can get at least average support from the hitters and relief pitchers, he could emerge as a 20-game winner.

Webb, the Diamondbacks’ projected co-ace, will begin the season on the disabled list while he builds up his pitch count and regains strength in his surgically repaired right shoulder. If Webb can return to the rotation by May – as is hoped – and can regain his previous level of efficiency, he and Haren will form one of the top starting pitching duos in the majors. If Webb cannot pick up where he left off in 2008, the D-backs will have to rely even more upon right-handers Edwin Jackson (13-9, 3.62 ERA last year with Detroit) and Kennedy (a prospect acquired from the New York Yankees).

The Diamondbacks paid a steep price to obtain the services of Jackson and Kennedy, trading away highly touted young pitchers (and former No. 1 draft choices) Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth in a three-team deal involving the Tigers and Yankees.

In the Arizona rotation behind Haren, Webb (hopefully), Jackson and Kennedy is 34-year-old Rodrigo Lopez, who went 60-58 for Baltimore from 2002-06 and who pitched 30 innings (finishing 3-1 with a 5.70 ERA) for Philadelphia last year.

Chad Qualls returns to the closer’s role after finishing with 24 saves and a 3.63 ERA last season, which ended for him on Aug. 30 when he suffered a dislocated left knee.

While Qualls had a solid season in 2009, the same cannot be said for the majority of his lodge brothers in the bullpen. Arizona relievers surrendered tying runs, winning runs and multiple-run rallies with alarming frequency last year, sapping the collective confidence from a team that had no margin for error due to its shortcomings on offense and the injury to Webb.

As part of this year’s potential remedy, newly acquired setup man Bob Howry – a 36-year-old right-hander whose 12-year major-league resume has featured productive seasons with the White Sox, Indians, Cubs and Giants – will be looked upon to keep the Diamondbacks solvent in the late stages of close games. If Howry (2-6, 3.39 ERA with San Francisco last season) and Juan Gutierrez (4-3, 4.06 in 2009) can maintain order during the seventh and eighth innings (and, on some occasions, in the ninth inning and beyond when the Diamondbacks are tied or are facing a narrow deficit), the bullpen could undergo a transformation from liability in 2009 to asset in 2010.

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2010 D-backs forecast

If everything goes right (in other words, if Webb returns to join Haren at the top of the rotation, if LaRoche and Drew help Upton and Reynolds to lead a resurgent offense, if Edwin Jackson and Kennedy each win at least 12 games and if the bullpen is reasonably successful), the Diamondbacks could finish above .500 and could contend in the NL West.

If everything goes wrong (in other words, if Webb does not come back healthy, if no one steps up on offense besides Upton and Reynolds, if Jackson and Kennedy each fail to reach double-digit victories and if the relief pitchers get hammered like they did last year), the Diamondbacks will finish back in the cellar, perhaps with a worse record than last season’s 70-92.

More likely than either the “all-good” scenario or the “all-bad” scenario is that some things will go right and others will go wrong.

While no one knows what will happen with Webb, we can offer some educated assertions regarding the other key factors associated with the 2010 Diamondbacks.

The way I see it:

The offense should be significantly improved. In addition to the All-Star-caliber production that Upton and Reynolds should provide, LaRoche can drive in 85 to 90 runs while a healthy Conor Jackson can drive in at least 70. Drew is due for a statement-making year, with an average close to .300, a home run total of 20-plus and an RBI total of at least 75. Johnson is a better hitter than he showed last year in Atlanta, and the D-backs have to get increased production from their center fielder (either from Young or from second-year player Gerardo Parra, who hit .290 with five homers and 60 RBIs as a rookie last season).

Edwin Jackson won 14 games for Tampa Bay in 2008 before winning 13 with Detroit in 2009. There is no reason why he can’t step in and do the same thing in Arizona. At age 26, he should be counted upon to pitch 200-plus innings and win 12 to 15 games.

Kennedy arrives with much more uncertainty. The 25-year-old was a first-round draft choice of the Yankees in 2006, but he has won only one game in the majors. In 2009, he pitched one inning for the Yankees and 22 and 2/3 innings at Class AAA Scranton/ Wilkes-Barre before missing the rest of the season due to an aneurysm below his right armpit that required surgery.

The Diamondbacks’ bullpen probably will not be stellar, but it can’t be as bad (can it?) as it was last year, when every seventh inning was prone to evolve into an ordeal and every eighth inning seemed to degenerate into a nightmare.

Considering all factors (and recognizing that the overall quality and depth of the pitching rotation remains in question due to the uncertain condition of Webb’s pitching shoulder), I’ll pick the Diamondbacks to finish 80-82 in 2010. While that record won’t allow them to seriously contend for the postseason – even in a potentially mediocre NL West Division – it will lift them out of last place and back to respectability.

By: Tom Kessler
MLBcenter.com Arizona Diamondbacks correspondent

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