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2010 MINNESOTA TWINS PREVIEW
2009 was a banner year in Minnesota. The Twins won 86 games in the regular season and then won a one game playoff against Detroit to claim the AL Central in the final season at the Metrodome. While the Twins fell to the Yankees in the Divisional Series, catcher Joe Mauer was named the AL Most Valuable Player.
2010 marks a year of new beginnings at brand new Target Field. While the new stadium secured the team’s future in the Twin Cities, the big question is whether they’ll be able to hold onto the Franchise, as Mauer is in the final year of his contract. Whether the hometown kid decides to resign with the Twins will have a major influence on the success of the 2010 season in Minnesota because he is the heart and soul of this team.
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STARTING PITCHING
The Twins have s solid rotation but are sorely lacking a top end starter. Scott Baker (15-9, 4.37 ERA, 33 Starts, 200 IP) led the rotation in victories but saw his ERA rise by nearly a full run in 2009. Kevin Slowey (10-3, 4.86 ERA, 16 Starts, 90 IP) was equally effective in half of a season’s worth of starts and should benefit from a full season of health. Young starter Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.03 ERA, 33 Starts, 3 CG, 205 IP) might have been the Twins’ best starter and his statistics were a virtual repeat of his 2008 rookie season (11-11, 4.05 ERA, 33 Starts, 193 IP). Expect Blackburn to improve towards becoming the Twins’ top starter.
The final two spots will also be interesting to watch. Carl Pavano (14-12, 5.10 ERA, 199 IP, 147 K) had an up and down year and has proven throughout his career that he’s no more than a good 5 th starter. The most familiar name among the candidates is former prodigy Francisco Liriano (5-13, 5.80 ERA, 24 Starts, 136 IP, 122 K), who struggled in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Liriano will have to earn his way into the rotation because he spent all of last September in the bullpen. Finally, Brian Duensing (5-2, 3.64 ERA, 9 Starts, 24 Games) pitched well down the stretch last season and might be the best bet of the three to begin the year in the rotation. In the end, the Twins have a lot of very good starters but not one great one.
BULLPEN
Minnesota suffered one of the most unfortunate injuries of Spring Training when superstar closer Joe Nathan (2.10 ERA, 47 Saves in 70 Games, 89 K in 68 IP) went down with an elbow injury. Nathan is going to miss the entire season and that’s an enormous blow to the Twins.
So who will replace Nathan at the back end? There are plenty of strong candidates among this deep group, the foremost of whom is Matt Guerrier (5-1, 2.36 ERA in 79 Games). Other strong hurlers include Jose Mijares (2.34 ERA in 71 Games), Pat Neshek (2.94 ERA in 74 Games in 2008), Jon Rauch (7-3, 3.60 ERA in 75 Games) and Jesse Crain (7-4, 4.70 ERA in 56 Games). With Nathan, this was an elite bullpen but until someone takes the closer’s job by the reins then there will be questions about this undeniably talented unit.
INFIELD
Unlike the rest of the AL Central, the Twins boast a fantastic infield. Obviously Mauer (.365, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 191 Hits, 94 R, .444 OBP) is the best catcher in baseball but he isn’t the only superstar wearing a Minnesota jersey. 1st Baseman Justin Morneau (.274, 30 HR, 100 RBI, .363 OBP) has driven in 100 runs or more in each of the last four years and was the 2006 AL MVP. Those two will bat 3-4 in the lineup and give opposing pitchers fits.
But they’re not the only strong players on the infield. 2nd Baseman Orlando Hudson (.283, 9 HR, 62 RBI, .357 OBP) is a strong hitter who still plays good defense. Former Brewer J.J. Hardy (.229, 11 HR, 47 RBI, .302 OBP) had an injury-riddled year last season but knocked 50 homers between 2007 and 2008. Expect him to have a good bounce back campaign. With Hardy in town, 3rd Baseman Brendan Harris (.261, 6 HR, 37 RBI, .310 OBP) moves to the hot corner and will provide solid defense. Overall, this is a very strong infield.
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OUTFIELD
Minnesota also has an excellent outfield. Rightfielder Michael Cuddyer (.276, 32 HR, 94 RBI, .342 OBP) had a career year in 2009 while blasting 32 Big Flys. While he probably won’t hit 30 bombs again this year, Cuddyer is a solid hitter that will provide plenty of protection for Mauer and Morneau in the lineup.
The other positions will feature speedy Denard Span (.311, 8 HR, 68 RBI, 23 SB, 180 Hits, 97 R, .392 OBP) leading off the lineup while roaming centerfield and 24 year old Delmon Young (.283, 12 HR, 60 RBI, .308 OBP in 108 Games) in left field. Young has shown star potential: Will this be the year that he breaks out?
Finally, the Twins have a lot of power at DH. Jason Kubel (.300, 28 HR, 103 RBI, .369 OBP) proved that his flashes of power in 2008 were no fluke and is primed for a big season in 2010. However, Minnesota also brought in veteran power hitter Jim Thome (.249, 23 HR, 77 RBI, .366 OBP) as a big bat that can be plugged in at a couple of places and if he ends up coming off of the bench then he might be the best pinch hitter in baseball.
OUTLOOK
The Twins had ‘Repeat’ written all over them heading into Spring Training. With an extremely dangerous lineup, a deep bullpen and a solid rotation, they were clearly the most complete team in the weak AL Central. However, with the injury to Nathan, their clear edge over the White Sox and Tigers has evaporated. The Twins still possess the best lineup in the AL Central and their rotation is still very strong but they’re not going to win the division easily.
That said, the Twins still look like the best team in AL Central and it won’t take 90 games to win the division this year as the division might be the weakest in baseball. Expect the Twins to slug their way to 87 or 88 wins and edge out the White Sox for the AL Central crown.
However, this team is not going to go beyond the first round of the playoffs because they don’t have the elite starters that it takes to beat the likes of Boston and New York in a short playoff series. Unless the Twins make an uncharacteristic trade to acquire an elite hurler then Minnesota’s season will end in the AL Divisional Series.
By Matt Baxendell
MLBcenter.com Staff Writer
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