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2010 SAN DIEGO PADRES PREVIEW
2009 might have resulted in a 75-87 record but that was actually a pleasant surprise for the Padres. Expectations were extremely low after trading superstar hurler Jake Peavy in the offseason and most pundits saw the Padres as a contender for the worst team in all of baseball. Thus, a 75 win season with a young team was actually a fairly big achievement.
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The biggest question heading into 2010 is whether the Padres can improve baseball’s 2nd most futile offense from 2009. The Fathers had the lowest batting average in the National League and averaged less than four runs per game of offense! In fact, the Padres were below average in pitching and downright miserable on offense, so they have to improve their output if they even want to expect to match last season’s 75 win total.
STARTING PITCHING
The Padres have a decent pitching rotation even without the presence of Peavy. It helps that Chris Young (4-6, 5.21 ERA, 14 Starts in 2009) should be back to full health after missing the 2nd half of 2009 due to injury. Young has the potential to be a top end starter for the Padres. Other rotation locks include Kevin Correia (12-11, 3.91 ERA, 33 Starts, 198 IP), big offseason acquisition Jon Garland (11-13, 4.01 ERA, 33 Starts, 204 IP) and Peavy trade bounty Clayton Richard (9-5, 4.41 ERA, 26 Starts, 38 Games). Where things get interesting is the battle for the 5th spot. Towering top prospect Mat Latos (4-5, 4.62 ERA, 10 Starts) is the favorite but he will have to hold off fellow prospect Wade LeBlanc (3-1, 3.69 ERA, 9 Starts) and veteran Tim Stauffer (4-7, 3.58 ERA, 14 Starts) for the spot. Overall, there is a lot of youthful talent on hand and the Padres should have a decent rotation in 2010, especially if Young is back to full health.
BULLPEN
After Trevor Hoffman’s 74,392 year run as the Padres closer, Heath Bell very capably took the reins and put together a 42 Save season in his first year in the role. That included a great 2.71 ERA and a solid 10.3 K/ 9 IP ratio. There is no reason whatsoever that Bell can’t continue Hoffman’s tradition of excellent closing in San Diego for many years to come.
The rest of the bullpen is also quite talented. Setup man Edward Mujica (3-5, 3.94 ERA in 67 Games) is a solid but unspectacular pitcher while Luke Gregerson (3.24 ERA in 72 Games) might push hard to take over his role in the 8 th inning. If righty Mike Adams is healthy (0.73 ERA in 37 Games), he’s a top end reliever as well. Luis Perdomo (4.80 ERA in 35 Games) pitched well in 2009 as a long relief option and Joe Thatcher (2.80 ERA in 52 Games), Ryan Webb (3.86 ERA in 28 Games) and Adam Russell (3-1, 3.65 ERA in 15 Games) round out perhaps the best bullpen in the NL West.
INFIELD
The Padres have exactly one big hitter in their lineup and that’s 1st Baseman Adrian Gonzalez (.277, 40 HR, 99 RBI, 407 OBP), whose numbers would be even more impressive if he weren’t playing in the biggest park in baseball. The big problem is that we can only project Gonzalez’s production to spend half of this season in San Diego because he is one of the hottest commodities on the trade market. With the cleanup hitter on the block, it isn’t easy to predict an upswing in the Padres’ offensive fortunes.
The rest of the infield is the lightest hitting group in Major League Baseball. 3rd Baseman Chase Headley (.262, 12 HR, 64 RBI, 10 SB, .342 OBP), Shortstop Everth Cabrera (.255, 2 HR, 31 RBI, 25 SB, .342), 2nd Baseman David Eckstein (.260, 2 HR, 51 RBI, .323 OBP), Super Backup Jerry Hairston Jr.(.251, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 7 SB, .315 OBP) and Catchers Nick Hundley (.238, 8 HR, 30 RBI, .313 OBP in 78 Games) and Yorvit Torrealba (.291, 2 HR, 31 RBI, .351 OBP in Colorado) combined for 34 Home Runs last year, six less than Gonzalez! This group is going to have to employ a lot of hit and run even before their best offensive threat gets dealt and that’s not a good sign for an improved offensive attack.
OUTFIELD
The picture is a little bit brighter in the outfield, where three young players with pop in their bats will start for the Padres. Leftfielder Kyle Blanks (.250, 10 HR, 22 RBI, .355 OBP) put up very good power numbers in only 54 games, centerfielder Scott Hairston (.265, 17 HR, 64 RBI, 11 SB, .307 OBP) has good career slugging numbers at Petco Park and rightfielder Will Venable (.256, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB, .323 OBP in 95 Games) had a huge 2nd half in 2009. With Tony Gwynn Jr. (.270, 2 HR, 21 RBI, 11 SB, .350 OBP) providing plenty of speed as a 4th outfielder, there is a lot of potential in this group. The big question is whether they can realize that potential quickly enough to power San Diego’s flagging offense.
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OUTLOOK
The Padres have a lot of nice young talent on hand and can truly boast one of the league’s best bullpens. In fact, this team looks to be better off than the 2009 edition was heading into Spring Training. However, San Diego will not match 2009’s 75 win total. Why? Partly because trading slugger Adrian Gonzalez appears to be a foregone conclusion, partly because the Padres are so young that it is inevitable that some of their players will stagnate in their growth and partly because the NL West appears to be a really tough division. The Padres will score less runs due to the inevitable Gonzalez deal and if they finish like 2009 (10th in ERA and 15th in runs in the NL) then they’re going to have a very long season. Expect the Padres to finish in the basement of the West Division with around 70 wins as they’re going to have to go through some development and one very painful trade before they can expect to compete again for the Division title.
By Matt Baxendell
MLBcenter.com Staff Writer
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> View all of the 2009 MLB team previews from Pro Baseball Fans
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